Tuesday 05/11/2024

John Hall • November 5, 2024

Daily Update 05/11/2024

Key Headline:

Markets anticipate that the U.S. dollar will only strengthen if Republicans achieve a full "red sweep" in the election.

Recap

Yesterday afternoon, markets shifted to a risk-off stance, leading to a drop in the USD as enthusiasm for the "Trump trade" faded before the presidential election. The GBP fell along with the decline in risk sentiment, while the JPY and CHF emerged as the top performers among G10 currencies.

Today’s Rates

Today's Interbank Rates at 09:58 am against GBP movement.

GBP>EUR – 1.1919

GBP>USD – 1.2982

EUR>GBP – 0.8390

EUR>USD – 1.0892

GBP>CAD – 1.8022

GBP>AUD – 1.9617

GBP>SEK – 13.877

GBP>AED – 4.7678

GBP>HKD – 10.091

GBP>ZAR – 22.662

GBP>CHF – 1.1191

GBP>PLN – 5.1966

Today’s Overview

As election day approaches, markets remain cautious, with predictions still uncertain. Polls in key swing states close around 2-3 AM GMT, potentially prompting market reactions.

Analysts believe a Republican "clean sweep" is needed for the USD to strengthen, as a Republican win is expected to lead to more fiscal expansion, boosting stimulus and inflation. This could lead markets to lower their expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

In any other election outcome, the USD could see significant selling, with investors taking profits after its strong October performance. Meanwhile, the upcoming ISM Services data from the U.S. is expected to have minimal market impact.

5^th November 2024

This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information, or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.

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