Monday 04/11/2024
Daily Update 04/11/2024
Key Headline:
"Trump trades" are reversing as the election approaches, with a busy week ahead for central banks, including updates from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of Australia.
Recap
On Friday, the gilt market steadied, suggesting some stability had returned after the turbulence caused by the Autumn Budget release. The British pound regained some ground ahead of the upcoming Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the US dollar initially weakened following a disappointing non-farm payroll report, which showed only 12,000 new jobs in October due to the aftermath of recent hurricanes. However, a surprising increase in hourly earnings gave the USD a strong boost across major currencies, except for the GBP.
Today’s Rates
Today's Interbank Rates at 09:48 am against GBP movement.
GBP>EUR – 1.1897
GBP>USD – 1.2966
EUR>GBP – 0.8403
EUR>USD – 1.0897
GBP>CAD – 1.8044
GBP>AUD – 1.9674
GBP>SEK – 13.833
GBP>AED – 4.7623
GBP>HKD – 10.082
GBP>ZAR – 22.727
GBP>CHF – 1.1199
GBP>PLN – 5.1653
Today’s Overview
This week brings major events, with the U.S. presidential election and rate announcements from Australia, the UK, and the U.S. In October, the U.S. dollar strengthened as markets anticipated a Trump win.
Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points, but future policy guidance will be crucial for currency trends. It remains to be seen whether the BoE will shift its approach following the Autumn Budget or keep its focus on domestic data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, however, is not likely to cut rates. At the start of the week, the USD is showing softness as traders pull back from "Trump trades" after an Iowa poll revealed Harris leading with 47% to Trump’s 44%. While the dollar has been strong with expectations of a Trump win, a Harris victory could prompt a rapid USD sell-off, likely leading to a weaker dollar, with sustained gains likely only if Republicans secure full control.
4th November 2024
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