Key Market Insights:

• US Dollar (USD): The dollar has reached its strongest point in a fortnight.
• Euro (EUR): Attention is squarely on upcoming tariff decisions, which are influencing the euro's performance.
• British Pound (GBP): Sterling saw an unexpected drop after recent data revealed a contraction in Gross Domestic Product.

Market Recap

This week, global markets have been largely shaped by renewed trade tensions and a surprising economic downturn in the UK. Here's what you need to know:

US Dollar Strength on Tariff Threats

The US Dollar saw a significant rally yesterday, reaching a two-week high. This surge followed an announcement from the US administration indicating that substantially higher tariffs – as much as 3.5% – are set to be applied to all Canadian imports starting August 1st. Furthermore, the European Union has been put on notice, with a letter regarding potential tariffs expected by Friday.

There's also talk of a blanket 15%-20% tariff rate on other nations, a notable increase from the current 10% baseline. These developments signal a more aggressive stance on trade, which is impacting currency valuations as investors react to the potential for disrupted global trade flows.

Germany Feels the Pinch of Trade Uncertainty

The impact of these potential tariffs is already being felt, particularly in Germany, a major trading partner with the US. German exports to the United States experienced a significant decline for the second consecutive month in May, falling by 7.7% after a 10.5% drop in April. This trend underscores the real-world consequences of escalating trade tensions.

The President of the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services, Dirk Jandura, voiced strong concerns, stating that "the situation in foreign trade is dramatic and threatens to get worse." He emphasized the need for a "fair deal for the whole of Europe" and highlighted that the effects of these tariff policies are becoming increasingly evident.

Unexpected UK Economic Contraction

Closer to home, the British Pound (Sterling) has weakened after new data this morning revealed an unexpected contraction in the UK economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% decline in April. This marks two consecutive months of negative growth, catching markets off guard, as a rebound was generally anticipated. This unexpected dip in economic activity could have implications for future monetary policy and overall economic sentiment in the UK.

Today’s Market Update:

After a week dominated by trade concerns, the spotlight is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly the highly anticipated US inflation report due next week.

Why is this important for you?

• Potential for Higher Inflation: The market is expecting this report to show the largest monthly increase in US inflation since January. If the figures come in higher than anticipated, it could signal that inflationary pressures are more persistent than previously thought.

• Federal Reserve's Next Move: A hotter-than-expected inflation report would directly impact the Federal Reserve's (Fed) approach to interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing in a significant number of rate cuts by the end of next year. However, strong inflation data could force the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer, or even consider raising them, to cool down the economy. This would be a significant shift from current market expectations and could lead to market volatility.

• Jamie Dimon's Warning: Adding to this sentiment, market heavyweight Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan Chase) recently stated that he sees a 40-50% chance of higher US interest rates. This is a stark contrast to the market's current outlook and highlights the potential for a significant reassessment of monetary policy. He cited factors like the impact of tariffs, US migration policy, and budget deficits as drivers of potential inflation.

In essence:

The upcoming inflation report is a key piece of the puzzle that will help determine the trajectory of US interest rates and, consequently, global market performance. Be prepared for potential shifts in market sentiment depending on the outcome.

11th July 2025

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