EU Inflation Softens, US Job Openings in Focus: Key Market Drivers Ahead of Central Bank Moves

John Hall • June 3, 2025

Economic data out today could influence central bank policy in both Europe and the U.S.

Key Market Takeaways

🏭 US Manufacturing Slips Further

 Latest data confirms continued contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector, reinforcing concerns about economic softness.


🇪🇺 EU Inflation Data Eyed

Attention now shifts to European inflation figures, which could influence expectations for ECB policy moves in the months ahead.


Weak U.S. data may fuel speculation about rate cuts, while a hotter-than-expected EU inflation print could challenge the ECB’s dovish path. Markets remain finely balanced between growth concerns and policy direction.


Market Recap

Dollar Slides on Weak Data and Trade Tensions

The U.S. dollar extended losses on Monday, pressured by disappointing economic data and renewed geopolitical friction.


Key Points:

  • 📉 Manufacturing Disappointment The ISM manufacturing index came in below forecasts, marking a third straight month of contraction—highlighting ongoing weakness in the sector.
  • 🌐 Trade Tensions Resurface Earlier losses were driven by a fresh flare-up in U.S.-China trade tensions, adding to market caution at the start of the week.


What This Means...

Sluggish manufacturing data reinforces expectations for a dovish Fed stance, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on risk sentiment and the dollar.


Today’s Market Update

Focus Turns to EU Inflation & US Jobs Data

Markets are closely watching today's key data releases from both sides of the Atlantic, with implications for monetary policy.


Key Highlights:

  • EU Inflation in Focus Inflation across the euro area is expected to ease further from April to May, reinforcing the case for more rate cuts from the European Central Bank. A 25bps cut is anticipated this Thursday, with another move likely before year-end.
  • US Job Openings (JOLTS) Due The latest JOLTS data is projected to show a decline in job openings—potentially signalling a cooling labour market and giving the Fed further reason to stay on hold.


What This Means...

Slowing inflation in Europe paves the way for further ECB easing, while softer U.S. labour data could support a more cautious Fed. Together, these trends may keep pressure on the euro and influence broader currency market sentiment.


3rd June 2025


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