EU Inflation Softens, US Job Openings in Focus: Key Market Drivers Ahead of Central Bank Moves
Economic data out today could influence central bank policy in both Europe and the U.S.
Key Market Takeaways
🏭 US Manufacturing Slips Further
Latest data confirms continued contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector, reinforcing concerns about economic softness.
🇪🇺 EU Inflation Data Eyed
Attention now shifts to European inflation figures, which could influence expectations for ECB policy moves in the months ahead.
Weak U.S. data may fuel speculation about rate cuts, while a hotter-than-expected EU inflation print could challenge the ECB’s dovish path. Markets remain finely balanced between growth concerns and policy direction.
Market Recap
Dollar Slides on Weak Data and Trade Tensions
The U.S. dollar extended losses on Monday, pressured by disappointing economic data and renewed geopolitical friction.
Key Points:
- 📉 Manufacturing Disappointment The ISM manufacturing index came in below forecasts, marking a third straight month of contraction—highlighting ongoing weakness in the sector.
- 🌐 Trade Tensions Resurface Earlier losses were driven by a fresh flare-up in U.S.-China trade tensions, adding to market caution at the start of the week.
What This Means...
Sluggish manufacturing data reinforces expectations for a dovish Fed stance, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on risk sentiment and the dollar.
Today’s Market Update
Focus Turns to EU Inflation & US Jobs Data
Markets are closely watching today's key data releases from both sides of the Atlantic, with implications for monetary policy.
Key Highlights:
- EU Inflation in Focus Inflation across the euro area is expected to ease further from April to May, reinforcing the case for more rate cuts from the European Central Bank. A 25bps cut is anticipated this Thursday, with another move likely before year-end.
- US Job Openings (JOLTS) Due The latest JOLTS data is projected to show a decline in job openings—potentially signalling a cooling labour market and giving the Fed further reason to stay on hold.
What This Means...
Slowing inflation in Europe paves the way for further ECB easing, while softer U.S. labour data could support a more cautious Fed. Together, these trends may keep pressure on the euro and influence broader currency market sentiment.
3rd June 2025
How We Can Help...
Our team are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer guidance on the best options available to you.
Get in Touch!
P: 07441 910 897
E: FX-Admin@frank-exchange.com
This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information, or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.
