Wednesday 26/03/2025
Daily Update 26/03/2025
Key Headlines:
- Markets price in an 80% likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in May.
- The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to lower its growth forecast.
Recap
As the afternoon progressed, the US dollar weakened following a sharp decline in consumer confidence, which reached a four-year low due to persistent concerns over tariffs. The dollar index has now fallen 5% since the start of the year, while GBP/USD and EUR/USD have risen by 3.33% and 4.80%, respectively. Meanwhile, GBP/EUR moved higher, approaching its March 5th peak, as markets continued scaling back expectations for Bank of England rate cuts this year.
Today’s Rates
Today's Interbank Rates at 09:17 am against GBP movement.
GBP>EUR – 1.1947
GBP>USD – 1.2900
EUR>GBP – 0.8371
EUR>USD – 1.0799
GBP>CAD – 1.8384
GBP>AUD – 2.0398
GBP>SEK – 12.933
GBP>AED – 4.7367
GBP>HKD – 10.028
GBP>ZAR – 23.530
GBP>CHF – 1.1396
GBP>PLN – 4.9811
Today’s Key Takeaways
- UK Inflation Drops: February CPI came in at 2.8%, below the expected 3%, leading markets to raise the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in May to 80%.
- GBP Weakens Ahead of Spring Statement: The pound is lower this morning, though the statement is expected to have little impact on FX as key announcements are already priced in.
- Growth Outlook Downgrade Expected: The OBR is set to revise down its growth forecast for the year. Despite this, GBP has gained 3.7% since January, though some analysts now view it as overvalued heading into Q2.
26th March 2025
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