Key Headlines

•            Europe's growth bounces back

•            A hawkish Fed meeting tonight could see no rate cuts this year

Recap

The EUR got a boost this morning after core CPI numbers came in higher than expected, although the disinflation trend is still continuing. The currency was also helped with growth in the first quarter, exceeding expectations rising to 0.3% up from 0% in Q4, 2023. GBPEUR eased off recent highs as a result, and EURUSD had another attempt at resistance levels. Market pricing still suggests the ECB will cut in June, and then again in September. We saw a bid for USD in the afternoon after US labour costs accelerated more than expected, adding to the hawkish narrative from the Fed.

Today’s Overview

Appetite for USD has continued this morning, with the currency up across the board going into job numbers and the Fed meeting this evening. Markets are anticipating a hawkish statement from Fed Chair Powell this evening, which could rule out the chance of any rate cut at all this year. Worth remembering that only at the start of the year, markets were pricing in around 150 bps worth of cuts. With much of Europe observing a bank holiday today there may be limited impact in markets on hawkish job numbers this afternoon, but the case for further USD strength could be seen depending on how hawkish Fed Powell is this evening.

Equals Market Analysis– 1st May 2024

Today’s Rates

Today's Interbank Rates at 09:30 am against GBP movement.

GBP>EUR – 1.1711

GBP>USD – 1.2493

EUR>USD – 1.0667

GBP>CAD – 1.7204

GBP>AUD – 1.9283

GBP>SEK – 13.754

GBP>AED – 4.5877

GBP>HKD – 9.7760

GBP>ZAR – 23.416

GBP>CHF – 1.1508

GBP>PLN – 5.0845

Speeches

•          USD: Fed Chair Powell

(https://frank-exchange.com/)

This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information, or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.