Shifting inflation dynamics in the UK, renewed focus on US labour data, and evolving wage and services trends across Europe are all shaping market direction this week.
Key Insights:
- Thursday brings the release of September’s jobs report
- GBP faces heightened attention with the upcoming CPI announcement
Market Recap:
The US dollar held relatively firm even as Treasury yields eased and equity markets slipped at the open. In contrast, the Swiss franc strengthened, supported by a broader risk-averse tone and confirmation of a new tariff agreement between Switzerland and the United States.
In the UK, sterling softened after Chancellor Rachel Reeves scrapped proposed income-tax increases. However, the currency later pared some losses following reports that the improved fiscal outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility allowed the Chancellor to withdraw the tax-rise plans without jeopardising the government’s budget strategy.
Today's Market Watch:
UK inflation data for October is expected to show a further cooling in headline CPI, supporting the view that price pressures have already peaked. However, the pace of decline may remain slower than the Bank of England would like, suggesting that policymakers are unlikely to rush into rate cuts.
Across the eurozone, the latest HICP release should shed light on the recent uptick in services inflation, while the ECB’s updated wage indicator will provide the first evidence of how Q3 pay negotiations are evolving. Both metrics are important for judging how quickly core inflation may ease.
Preliminary PMI readings for the UK and euro area will also help gauge the strength of economic activity heading into the final quarter, giving an early indication of whether growth is stabilising or continuing to soften.
In the US, attention turns to Thursday’s release of the September nonfarm payrolls report, which could inject volatility into the dollar. Although the data is backward-looking, the USD has been on a stronger trajectory since September, meaning any signs of labour-market weakness could trigger a reversal as traders reassess expectations for the Fed.
17th November 2025
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